QQQ Trap or UpTick

 Here is the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) weekly chart and you can see that we’ve had a period of higher highs and higher lows.  That sounds like an uptrend, right? 

Based on open interest of the 17 MAR options contract, I’m seeing support at the typical “big numbers” - those that end in 0 or 5.  But the $293 put contract has 13,206 open interest, so I think we’re likely to find an area of support around that level.

We can look at the same chart, but using the daily periods.  If we do trade lower than the shaded box, I’d look for a pivot at $280.  If we fall below $280, the trend pattern is no longer valid.

Now, why might we rebound and trade higher if I just got done writing about the negative news from the Fed?  Well, trading and the economy don’t always align.  But it’s not going to be good news if the “riskier” Nasdaq falls apart from here.  We could see a run back to the defensive stocks if that happens.

We will soon find out if the 2023 run higher is the start of something bigger or if this was just a bull trap that we’ve seen before.