StatWeek

  The calm before… Considering the backdrop of a potentially havoc-wreaking US government default, stock markets are remarkably  quiet . Indeed, US stocks have been calm all year, swaying only gently from side-to-side on any given day. The sharpest drop in the flagship  S&P 500 Index  came on February 21st, when the market fell  2% . Last year, on the other hand, a 2% drop would have been the  24th worst day , and of course it’s absolutely nothing compared to the  ~8% ,  ~10%  and even  12%  falls that we saw in 2020, during the early days of the pandemic. The  Wall Street Journal  blames the robots for the calm, citing a rise in systematic (algorithm-driven) investors, which have pushed markets higher, as discretionary investors sit on the sidelines. Reasons to (not) worry In addition to the debt ceiling, the current crop of top concerns includes ongoing geopolitical conflicts, still-high inflation, how the impacts of the interest rate rises will filter through the economy and whe

 

 

 

 

 

  I believe the market will begin to digest the real possibility that its expectations of a Fed pivot are way off. If that happens, we’ll likely see downward pressure on stocks. That’s what the chart below suggests… The blue bars show the current projections for interest rates by year’s end. Most of them have ticked up since last week. If this trend continues – and I believe it will, at least for the next few weeks – we’ll likely see prices dip further.

  And everyone - institutional players and retail investors alike - is looking to buy one asset: That's right -  gold is the #1 asset you should have in your portfolio right now . ( And silver... and copper .)

  The currency recently declined in seven out of eight weeks. That's a consistent downtrend. And similar moves have happened just 1% of the time over the past 50 years. Take a look... The worst of the decline happened in late 2022 and early 2023. The dollar rallied for a few weeks... before it started to slide again. According to history, this consistent drop means we should expect the dollar to keep falling. Here's what the currency has done after similar moves... Currency fluctuations can cause major headwinds or tailwinds for investors... But they tend to happen at a glacial pace. And over the past 50 years, the dollar has largely gone nowhere. Instances like today's have led to more declines in the dollar, though. After similar cases, the currency typically dropped 0.6% six months later... And it fell 1.3% a year later. Those might not seem like huge declines. But they're significant for a slow-moving currency. This shows that the recent downtrend will likely contin

  The committee’s Democrats picked up the ball and ran with it: “Xi Jinping has assessed the United States as a flawed and failing political and economic system. Nothing we could do would reinforce that impression more than defaulting on our national debt,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware). Right, because it would be soooo much better to just keep running up Uncle Sam’s credit card without limit. Besides, Beijing has already expressed its level of confidence in America’s “political and economic system” — Chinese holdings of U.S. Treasury debt are back to levels last seen in 2010. Note the precipitous drop in just the last year. That’s Chinese leaders, seeing how Washington declared Russia’s Treasury holdings worthless after the invasion of Ukraine — and wondering whether they might be next.

  hrough all that,   luxury spending   rose 20%! What? How? Why?  We had a million questions, too. But that led us to a new theory to explain the ostensibly odd 20% jump in luxury spending.  We’re calling it the “ Luxury Shift .” The Great Shift to Luxury Goods and Experiences In short, instead of buying homes, younger folks are buying luxury goods and experiences.  It may seem silly. But we honestly believe that is exactly what is going on right now.  Back in the 1970s, ‘80s, and ‘90s, the so-called “American Dream” involved going to college, getting a job, saving up some cash, and then putting that money into a little home in suburbia with a green lawn and white picket fence.  That American Dream is now dead for most people.  Why? Because back in the 1970s, ‘80s, and ‘90s, homes were affordable.  That is no longer the case. 

  Between the most aggressive rate hike campaign in history and an easing pace of inflation, it looks the Fed Funds rate is finally in neutral territory.     Like Goldilocks’ porridge, when you subtract inflation of 4.96% (the latest year-over-year increase for the PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) from the Fed Funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee seems to have landed at not too hot and not too cold. And while the Fed takes a wait-and-see approach, the question becomes how soon before fighting recession becomes the priority. Job Openings have tumbled…     The housing continues to contract with construction down…     Fewer new homes being constructed…     And plans for new homes on the decline…     Bank sector credit tightening is also taking a bite.  Consumer credit has turned lower…     And industrial loans have turned lower, as well…     For the better part of 2 years, retail sales have remained relatively stable having plateaued at COVID stimulus highs…  

 

 

  Do Hard Things Why We Get Resilience Wrong and the Surprising Science of Real Toughness Steve Magness The way we think about toughness, according to Steve Magness, is all wrong. We traditionally define toughness as a combination of machismo, lack of emotion, and outward displays of dominance and control. But Magness claims that this "old-school" definition of toughness is harmful and that real toughness is defined by confronting reality, acknowledging your thoughts, feelings, and emotions, and using a multitude of strategies to cope with discomfort or adversity. In  Do Hard Things , Magness provides a new, more accurate, and more effective way of thinking about toughness, which will help you overcome challenges and make better, more thoughtful decisions. In this guide, we’ll explore why traditional ideas around toughness are not only ineffective but harmful. Then, we’ll look at Magness’ ideas on what it really means to be resilient, and we’ll provide strategies on how to ov

  Coaching for Performance The Principles and Practice of Coaching and Leadership Sir John Whitmore In  Coaching for Performance , Sir John Whitmore provides strategies to maximize employees’ potential and performance. In a work world changed by globalization and the ability to exchange information instantly, leaders must shift from a command-and-control mindset to one that recognizes workers’ value. Coaches can help them reveal employees’ talents and step into this new reality. Whitmore is a pioneer of workplace coaching and co-creator of the popular GROW model, a coaching framework for goal-setting and performance improvement. Published in 2017, the 5th edition of Whitmore’s groundbreaking 1992 book offers updated information on the benefits of coaching and methods of measuring organizational culture and performance. In this guide, we’ll examine the ins and outs of performance coaching, how to create an effective performance coaching structure and maximize coachees’ performance, and

  Thus Spoke Zarathustra Friedrich Nietzsche In the 1880s, German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote  Thus Spoke Zarathustra  as a creative presentation of his views about life and philosophy. The book is a fictitious, poetic story about a prophet named Zarathustra. Much of the book consists of monologues that Zarathustra delivers to his disciples, his pets (an eagle and a snake), or people he meets in the woods near the cave that he calls home. In this guide, we’ll examine Zarathustra’s teaching on what humans  are , what they can  become , and  how  you should live if you want to participate in the advancement of humankind. We’ll also consider Zarathustra’s criticism of Christianity, which is interspersed throughout his teachings and comprises a large portion of the book. Yet, as we’ll see, Zarathustra shares more ideas than you might expect with certain Christian theologians. We’ll also bring in additional perspectives from great thinkers like Stephen Hawking and Tom Rath.

  Blowout Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth Rachel Maddow In  Blowout , journalist and MSNBC commentator Rachel Maddow aims to expose the corruption and exploitation underlying the oil and gas industry. Pointing the finger primarily at Russian politicians like Vladimir Putin and American energy magnates like former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, Maddow contends that over the past 40 years, the industry has wreaked havoc on the environment, developing economies in the third world, and international relations, especially in Eastern Europe. Ultimately, she argues that only full transparency and strict environmental regulation can protect the planet from devastating accidents and corporate greed. In this guide, we’ll discuss her evidence for how a handful of companies and politicians have exploited oil and gas reserves worldwide, both for profit and to serve dangerous political ends. We’ll also elaborate on how oil and gas have dama

  Die With Zero Getting All You Can from Your Money and Your Life Bill Perkins According to hedge-fund manager and energy trader Bill Perkins, your goal should be to die with zero dollars in your bank account because you’ve used all your money to lead the fullest possible life. Perkins explains that people generally tend to over-save and under-experience, but at the end of our lives, we’ll actually value experiences more than the money we saved. In  Die With Zero , he proposes a strategy for maximizing enriching experiences throughout your life and minimizing unspent funds. Perkins gears his book toward an audience with disposable income whose earnings will likely continue to grow over time. He acknowledges that his advice isn't a substitute for a professional financial planner, and he focuses on big-picture spending and saving principles rather than specific financial advice. We’ll supplement Perkins’s recommendations with other financial advice and alternative views on how to mak