The formerly favored gauge on whether a recession is coming — the Treasury yield curve — has been inverted since last July: yield curve inversion 1yr

The formerly favored gauge on whether a recession is coming — the Treasury yield curve — has been inverted since last July:

 — has been inverted since last July:

This time they’ve been pretty quiet about it despite it having predicted the past seven recessions (shown in gray in the chart below):

I could wager some guesses as to why they’re not panicking about it this time (different president in office, different policies causing problems, different narrative to enforce), but that’s not what I’m here for.