China's growth — and relations with the US —weigh on investors' minds

 

China's growth — and relations with the US —weigh on investors' minds

Investors and business leaders are optimistic about China's economic growth this year but have concerns about geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., according to a poll conducted at our Global Macro Conference Asia Pacific. During last week's event in Hong Kong, which returned in person for the first time in three years, we asked attendees to share their thoughts on the biggest risks to global growth in 2023.

44% of respondents said tensions between the U.S. and China are the risk causing them the most concern for the world economy this year — coming in ahead of worries about resurgent inflation (26%), other geopolitical risks (15%) and policy-induced recession (13%). But at the same time, most expect China's GDP expansion to surge as the economy reopens.

“For 2023, investors agree that growth will recover after the removal of zero-Covid policy, although there are disagreements on the strength of the recovery, with consumer confidence, property market and local government debt being the top concerns,” Goldman Sachs' chief China economist Hui Shan says. “However, over the medium term, U.S.-China relations are the dominant uncertainty weighing on investors' minds.”