index’s trajectory continues to signal a recession ahead

-

index’s trajectory continues to signal a recession ahead

While most of the ten components fell in the second half of 2022, the weakness in non-financial components drove the overall decline. 📉

While these declines were more or less expected, what has investors worried is that the index’s trajectory continues to signal a recession ahead. And while no forecasting system is perfect, this one has a pretty good track record. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The 18.6 Year Cycle Hasn’t Failed for 231 Years

-
Image
  The 18.6 Year Cycle Hasn’t Failed for 231 Years Stock markets… bond markets… real estate… all follow cycles. And I have been researching them for decades. For instance, did you know that every 18.6 years… since 1792… stock markets peaked, fell, and entered panics in consistent cycles? Take a look at the chart below. It tracks commodity cycles since 1792. (Click here to expand image) Or did you know that at the bottom of the cycle, new industries emerge, led by next-generation entrepreneurs? The cycle predicts that, too.
Read more

How a Gigantic Free-Trade Zone Made America the World's #1 Economic Superpower.

-
Image
  “The United States Common Market and the Constitution: How a Gigantic Free-Trade Zone Made America the World's #1 Economic Superpower.” This chart shows how America gradually dominated the world economy: Was it the Commerce Clause? One of the lawyers there suggested it was the Commerce Clause in Article I, Section VIII that is the secret to America’s success. The Commerce Clause gives Congress the power “to regulate Commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian Tribes.” But Section VIII of Article I of the Constitution tells Congress what it can do, and that is  interfere  with commerce. Unfortunately, the Commerce Clause has been a major source of ever-increasing authority by Washington bureaucrats, which alone would not necessarily make America great. As I told the audience, you can drive a truck through Section VIII of the Constitution, which gives the Federal government virtually unlimited powers to tax, regulate, borrow money...
Read more

Future conflicts will focus on points of vulnerability.

-
Image
In the US, the federal government will continue to cede power to the states. The US is split evenly at the federal level, but the red vs. blue state map is much more definitive. Source: Mehlman Consulting Geopolitics will continue to evolve. Future conflicts will focus on points of vulnerability. As an example, think about the US and Europe marching toward full electrification. Battery-powered cars for all, of course, but that’s just the start. States are mandating electric heat and even electric cooktops.
Read more