Fed’s forecast

 

Fed’s forecast of 0.5% would put annualized inflation back at 6%. (I did that math in my head, so you might want to check it.) Too cold?

For all the good news on jobs and wages, I suspect today’s rally in risk assets is more about the bad news from ISM, whose non-manufacturing index dropped to 49.6 in December, down from 56.5 the month before. The drop in new orders (above) was even steeper.