StatWeek

This is a nice setup for a breakout which should meet the previous higher highs in October!   This is a nice setup for a breakout which should meet the previous higher highs in October! You can draw a triangle from the highs and the lows. Once this breaks out I would consider trading to be more optimistic.

 Silver is a bargain After months of upward momentum, silver has pulled back nearly 3% today… If you’ve been considering a precious metals investment, today could be a great time to get in at a lower price.

Rate Cut too soon?   Markets are making a far bigger bet that the Fed will also come round to their view on when to cut rates: later this year! As apparent from the chart below, the US central bank is usually on hold for only about 7 months before cutting rates. 

7 months to rate cuts?   7 months to rate cuts? A neat chart below from strategists at Goldman Sachs shows that Central Banks - in the US and elsewhere - pretty much lose all appetite for further hikes right around inflation peaks. This, more or less, is where we are today in the US. So it’s no surprise that over the weekend, the Federal Reserve telegraphed it another downshift in pace of hikes - and maybe a pause!  To preserve a degree of mystique in this tweet-crazy world, in an almost quaint tradition the Fed still handpicks a news outlet to communicate such market guidance over the weekend. 

Expect to see rental yields come down significantly in 2023. Perhaps surprisingly, there's a record number of   total housing units under construction   in the US. 1.7 million  homes under construction in the US. Nearly all of them are scheduled for delivery in 2023, which is going to add a lot of supply to an already declining sales and rental market. Single-family homes will be delivered first, and starts there have been  declining for the last ten months already . But multi-family starts have only just turned negative month on month. Expect to see rental yields come down significantly in 2023.

 Sideways Markets The S&P 500 during a truly revolutionary time of immense prosperity.  Low inflation, mass adoption of the Internet, relative peace and global stability, world-wide reductions in poverty on a scale never seen before in history. Wifi, smart phones, cheaper goods and services across the board. And yet despite it all, you’d have been flat pretty much for 16 years. And in fact, from 2000 to 2013 you’d have gained 0%.  Understand:  70.2% of the last 151 years of stock market history – the market has been in a sideways range or what I call a  “Stock Market Drought.” It didn’t matter if it was an amazingly prosperous time in American history or not. This is just the NORMAL state of the markets.  The idea that markets are usually going up in a strong trend is simply false – that’s less than 30% of the time. You’re simply LUCKY if you retire in a market like that.  You need to adjust to get into and out of trends, different sectors, differe...

2023 setup for a good year overall Even still, the good times more than make up for those occasional bad years. The average annual gain in the stock market over that period was 9.1%. And more important, consecutive losing years didn't happen often. In fact, they've only happened twice (including one run of three losing years) since 1950. You can see it in the chart below... Stocks dropped two years in a row in 1973 and 1974. And they dropped for three straight years during the dot-com bust. As you can see above, stocks tend to end up higher the year after a loss. That has happened 83% of the time... And the average gain increased from 9.1% to 15.3%. Even better, the four largest annual gains since 1950 each happened after a losing year. Take a look...